July 22, 2025, by Jean-Marc Behar

Executive Summary

Firearms trafficking poses a severe threat to public safety and governance across the Caribbean. Based on data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF), the United States is the overwhelming source of crime guns recovered in five key Caribbean nations: The Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, and Trinidad & Tobago. While trace submission rates vary by country, the percentage of firearms traced back to the U.S. consistently remains high, often exceeding 80% and sometimes over 95%.

Despite the scope of the problem, regional trace efforts remain uneven and in some cases underutilized. Improving trace submissions, strengthening cooperation with U.S. federal law enforcement, and leveraging modern crime gun intelligence tools such as eTrace and IBIN, or newer, nimbler & more user-friendly systems are essential steps toward meaningful reform. This white paper provides a summary of recent trace data and outlines a strategy for regional and international cooperation to disrupt the flow of illicit firearms.

I.   Understanding the Data

The table below presents the most recent trace data from 2020 to 2024 for five Caribbean nations, showing the total number of trace requests and percentages of those crime guns having originated from the U.S. The percentage of firearms sourced from the U.S. is consistently high, with the Bahamas frequently exceeding 98% and Jamaica often reporting over 70%.

Key Takeaways:

• The S. is the primary source of illicit firearms in the Caribbean.
• Some countries, like The Bahamas, submit consistent trace requests year after
• Others, particularly the Dominican Republic and Haiti, lack comprehensive tracing efforts due to limited institutional awareness, political instability (Haiti), or weak infrastructure (Haiti).
• Discrepancies in the total number of traces from year to year suggest procedural gaps in some jurisdictions, notably Trinidad & Tobago.

II.   Gaps in Tracing and Enforcement

• Dominican Republic: The low number of trace submissions (e.g., only 50 in 2024) highlights a critical lack of tracing The DR should be submitting over 2,000 traces annually based on its seizure rates and on the expert opinion of this author.
• Haiti: In addition to being a recipient or end-user, Haiti is also a major transshipment point, particularly through the illicit “Guns for Ganja” trade with Jamaica. The current political instability and ineffective law enforcement in that country hamper systematic tracing or interdiction efforts.
• Trinidad & Tobago: The discrepancies in trace submissions from year to year point to potential systemic gaps between seizures and forensic follow-through or

III.   Strengthening the Regional Response

To address the high volume of U.S.-sourced firearms in the region, a multifaceted strategy is required:

1. Prioritize Comprehensive Tracing: Every seized crime gun, regardless of quantity or origin, should be traced through ATF’s eTrace system.
2. Leverage Partnerships with S. Federal Law Enforcement Agencies: Given the origin of most crime guns, closer cooperation with U.S. Law Enforcement agencies is paramount.
3. Enhanced ATF Presence in the Region: Additional special agents and investigative analysts should be deployed to the region, or a specialized group created at the headquarters level or in Miami.
4. Refine Metrics concerning Time-To-Crime (TTC): Caribbean Security Sector Forces, in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement, should use forensic outcomes to distinguish between Time to Crime (discharge) and Time to Crime (recovery) that might in turn generate new leads.

IV.   A Strategic Framework for Gun Crime Investigation

The work of Pete Gagliardi, particularly his book “The 13 Critical Tasks”, could serve as a cost-effective roadmap for Caribbean LE to follow, as it offers a very useful and easy-to- follow framework:

• Adopt a systems-based approach to tracing and solving gun crimes
• Promote inter-agency and cross-border information sharing
• Fully utilize eTrace and IBIN or like system that can offer immediate
• Shift from reactive to proactive enforcement
• Ensure consistency and long-term data collection

Conclusion

Firearms trafficking in the Caribbean is a transnational issue with domestic implications. The data clearly show that most illicit guns originate from the U.S., but the Caribbean’s ability to respond varies greatly. Without comprehensive tracing, deep partnerships, and strategic intelligence practices supplemented with 21st-century technology, the region will continue to struggle against firearm-related crime.

This white paper recommends that all Caribbean governments:

• Mandate firearm tracing as standard practice
• Strengthen S. partnerships through joint investigative efforts
• Invest in forensic capacity and technology of the 21st century
• Advocate for stronger ATF support and an increase in its footprint in the region

The fight against gun crime begins with knowing where the firearms are coming from—and committing the necessary resources to stop them.